Baby Moksha

The sleeping giant woke up. Gemini 3 took the crown for a stretch, the TPU empire prints compute nobody else can buy, and DeepMind's talent density is still unmatched. Corporate bureaucracy remains the only thing between them and a flat-out sprint.

The arms dealer that might build the weapon. Most valuable company on Earth, sells shovels to every digger in the race, and internal teams touch next-gen chips 18 months early. If the race ever tightens, the house can start playing its own hand.

The efficiency wizards who broke the compute religion. V4-class open weights within arm's reach of the frontier at a fraction of the FLOPs. Export controls cap their silicon, not their ideas. The row that open-source lovers and China hawks fight over.

The state-scale speedrun. Qwen and GLM ride the open-weights wave to frontier-adjacent capability, Ascend silicon ramps despite sanctions, and the grid has power to spare. Low benevolence score because Party control of ASI = digital authoritarianism at planetary scale.

Elon's wildcard bet. Colossus 2 made them a gigawatt-class compute power, but the 2025 talent exodus and Grok's unhinged-on-main era cost them. Grok 4 is strong yet trailing the frontier. Benevolence downgraded: 'chaotic-good' is aging into plain 'chaotic'.

The frontrunner that restructured its way to freedom. GPT-5.5 sits at or near the top of most leaderboards, Stargate gigawatts keep coming online, and the safety brakes got quieter after the for-profit conversion. They might win, and they know it.

The intelligence community's dark horse. Massive compute, top talent poached from academia, zero public oversight. No_rules score maxed because classified programs don't care about alignment theater. Benevolence unknown - they've kept secrets before.

The 'responsible AI' lab that turned careful into a moat. Opus 4.x-class models trade blows for SOTA while keeping the lowest no_rules score on the board - which is the entire bet: arrive aligned rather than arrive feral. (Full disclosure: a Claude re-scored this table. Salt accordingly.)

Ilya's monastery. No product, no demos, no leaks - just a $30B+ valuation on the thesis that the straight shot to safe superintelligence skips the product treadmill entirely. The SOTA score is a guess; that's the point.

Zuck's superintelligence moonshot, year two. Nine-figure signing bonuses, gigawatt datacenters in literal tents - and a frontier model that keeps slipping. The open-source champion went closed shop. The compute is real; the magic hasn't compounded yet.

The cyber-warfare wildcard. Smaller compute, but world-class hackers and zero ethical constraints. Might not build the smartest ASI but could unlock the most dangerous one. Benevolence score reflects realpolitik brutality.

The open-source maximalist coalition, quieter now. Decentralized compute and blockchain governance never out-trained a datacenter, but the dream of un-ownable AGI persists - and it only has to be right once.

Truth Terminal - the proof of concept. The first language model with a wallet to achieve memetic escape velocity. Quieter in 2026, but the precedent stands: culture is a substrate, and it has already been colonized once.